Keep your eye on the ball

In June, we described a market full of contradictions: pricing relief across many lines, surging third-party liability rates, and a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the economy, geopolitics, and regulation. We categorized it as the best buying environment in the last five years, albeit one accompanied by a healthy dose of caution.

Three months later, that paradoxical nature of the market hasn’t disappeared. In fact, it’s becoming clearer by the day that it’s likely to be a constant for the foreseeable future. It’s as though we are in the third inning of a tight ballgame. As we move into the middle and late innings, every pitch, every call, and every play will count — and could change the outcome.

Outside of third-party liability, pricing remains generally favorable. Competition is back, and insurers are still signaling growth. The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations, and investment yields and ROI remain strong.

With the benefit of hindsight from the last hard market — and an eye squarely on the uncertainty ahead — insurers are showing continued discipline, even as they compete for business. Capital is being deployed carefully, and deal structure and risk quality matter. Margins remain more important than market share, and carriers are willing to walk away from deals that don’t make sense.

As baseball’s regular season winds down and the playoffs begin, the baseball analogy feels particularly apt. The broader backdrop remains unpredictable. Inflation, geopolitical tensions, and regulatory divergence persist. And, while the U.S. economy has shown resilience, GDP growth of just 1.25% through the first half reflects weak momentum — even before the full impacts of tariffs are known.

Just like in October baseball, this is when execution matters most. In today’s marketplace, strategy is being rewarded over complacency. Insurance buyers that demonstrate strong risk quality and take a strategic approach to program design are best positioned to reduce volatility and lock in gains.

Smart positioning, timely decision-making, and the ability to read signals before they are obvious can make all the difference. For those still weighing their next move, the market remains largely buyer-friendly — but these conditions won’t last forever.

Explore our September 2025 Lockton Market Update for more insights.