PROPERTY

Competition continues as rate reductions moderate slightly

KEY TAKEAWAYS


Property buyers continue to benefit from abundant capacity, though the pace of rate reductions may be beginning to slow and outcomes vary considerably by risk profile.


Reinsurance competition remains strong, supporting property capacity and more flexible structures.


Buyers should use current conditions to strengthen coverage, validate property and business interruption values, and invest in resilience.

Expected rate changes next quarter*

15% to 10% decrease


Shared and layered programs11

10% to 5% decrease


Single-carrier programs

Property rates continue to fall, for now, although early signs that rate reductions could slow are beginning to emerge. In the second quarter of 2026, median property insurance rates fell 10.5%, according to Lockton data.

Insurers are increasingly communicating that securing rate reductions will be more difficult as we approach 2027. Second-quarter renewal outcomes largely mirrored the first quarter, with most clean risks achieving lower pricing, and it remains to be seen whether underwriting discipline and sentiment will outweigh competitive dynamics, oversupply of capital, and strong industry profitability and balance sheets.

Outcomes continue to vary widely based on geography, catastrophe exposure, construction, occupancy, loss history, and capacity requirements. Buyers with significant catastrophe exposure or recent losses often experienced markedly different results than broader market averages.

Despite this, property capacity remains abundant, including from some new entrants. Competition remains strong despite growing resistance to further rate reductions.

Not all available capacity is interchangeable, however. The quality and continuity of lead capacity, claims capabilities, engineering resources, financial strength, and willingness to deploy meaningful limits remain important considerations, particularly for complex and catastrophe-exposed programs.

Although insurers continue to absorb catastrophe losses, recent activity has not been sufficient to alter market conditions. Global insured natural catastrophe losses totaled $42 billion in the first half of 2026, according to the Swiss Re Institute.

Severe convective storms12 remained the largest insured-loss peril in the first half of the year; despite above-average storm activity, losses were below recent years. Losses reflected storm geography and timing rather than reduced hazard levels.

Insurers have also benefited from limited activity through the first four months of the Atlantic hurricane season, after no U.S. hurricanes made landfall in 2025. While current conditions provide additional support for insurer results, a significant landfall in the final two months could quickly affect both retail and reinsurance market expectations.

Favorable retail property market conditions continue to be fueled by a softening reinsurance market, supported by abundant capital, strong reinsurer profitability, and robust competition for high-quality business. After several years of rate correction and improved underwriting results, many reinsurers view catastrophe pricing as adequate and are increasingly willing to return margin to deploy capital. Competition now extends beyond price, with reinsurers offering more flexible program structures and customized solutions.

Although reinsurance conditions remain favorable, impacts vary by insurer based on treaty structure13, catastrophe concentration, and appetite for deploying capacity.

Reinsurers continue to reward portfolio quality, exposure management, and data transparency while closely monitoring whether primary insurers maintain underwriting improvements that have driven recent profitability gains. Barring a significant catastrophe event, reinsurance conditions are expected to remain favorable through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, although the pace of rate reductions is likely to moderate as pricing approaches longer-term equilibrium. Insurers are increasingly using savings to optimize program structure and enhance resilience rather than simply reduce reinsurance spend.

Although scrutiny has eased in recent years, property insurers continue to focus on the accuracy and completeness of property valuations, particularly in an era of persistent inflation and tariff activity. Valuation concerns are generally not restricting capacity to the degree seen during the harder market, but they remain central to limit adequacy and claims outcomes.

Replacement cost is only part of the issue: Buyers should evaluate whether property and business interruption values remain aligned with current exposures and realistic recovery scenarios. Gaps between exposure declarations, policy provisions, and claims indemnity can become particularly significant when blanket limits, margin clauses14, occurrence limits of liability, or coinsurance provisions apply.

Catastrophe modeling also remains an important part of the underwriting process, but modeled results should not be treated as precise predictions. Buyers should understand the assumptions underlying their modeled loss estimates, including return periods, demand surge, secondary modifiers15, and concentrations of exposure. A relatively benign loss period does not indicate that the underlying hazard has diminished.

The market is likely to remain competitive through the next quarter, especially if Atlantic hurricane activity remains limited. Buyers should take this opportunity to strengthen coverage, optimize program structure, and address key catastrophe and business interruption exposures. Coverage quality remains as important as price, particularly regarding deductibles, sublimits16, occurrence definitions, and other restrictions. Organizations that combine strong risk quality, reliable exposure data, and thoughtful resilience investments continue to achieve the strongest outcomes.

*Note: Rate ranges presented here reflect expected renewal outcomes — as of the Lockton Market Update publication date — over the next quarter for most insurance buyers. These should not be taken as a guarantee of any specific results during renewal negotiations. Depending on risk profiles, loss histories, account specifics, and other factors, individual buyers may renew their programs outside these ranges.


11Layered program: An insurance structure in which coverage is built in layers above a primary policy. Each layer may be provided by a different insurer and attaches at progressively higher loss levels, creating a comprehensive tower of coverage. (See glossary.)

12Severe convective storms: Strong, local thunderstorms that can cause casualties and property damage from heavy rain, lightning, hail, straight-line winds, and tornadoes. Convective storms occur when warm, moist air rises higher into the atmosphere and then cools rapidly to generate powerful storms. (See glossary.)

13Treaty reinsurance: Reinsurance under which an insurer agrees to cede, and a reinsurer agrees to accept, a defined class or portfolio of business automatically according to the terms of the treaty, rather than underwriting each individual risk separately. (See glossary.)

14Margin clause: A commercial property provision limiting recovery at a particular location to a specified percentage of the value reported for that location on the statement of values. It effectively limits the flexibility otherwise provided by blanket limits. (See glossary.)

15Secondary modifiers: Detailed characteristics of a property that refine catastrophe models beyond basic attributes such as construction, occupancy, and location. Examples can include roof type, roof age, roof-to-wall connections, shutters, and other building features that affect vulnerability to loss. (See glossary.)

16Sublimits: A coverage limit for a specific type of loss under a broader insurance policy. Sublimits are typically part of, not in addition to, the overall policy limit and provide a lower available limit for the specified exposure. (See glossary.)

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